What exactly then did the the three uh
European nations announce yesterday?
What what is the read across uh to to
the US in terms of those those potential
talks with Iran?
Yeah, quite significant developments
there. So these so-called E3 countries,
Germany, France, and Britain informed
the UN Security Council last night that
they were looking to reinstate the
sanctions that had been suspended since
the advent of the 2015 JCPOA deal. And
of course, remember, President Trump
famously pulled out of that deal in
2018. But the remaining uh participants
of the deal include the EU, those E3
nations, Russia and China. And it is
very notable that they're now saying for
the first time since 2015, they are
ready to reimpose sanctions again
because they believe that Iran is not
abiding by its commitments. Now, in
terms of the sequencing, there is a
30-day snapback provision. And so during
that time frame, the UN Security Council
will then assess to see whether Iran has
met their commitments. If they deem they
have not, then those provisions go in.
The timing here also potentially quite
crucial, Tom, because on October the
1st, the chairman of the Security
Council flips from South Korea to
Russia. So maybe the Europeans wanted to
get this ahead of that timing, ahead of
October 1st. You know, obviously that's
speculative, but the point here is that
sanctions could be reinstated. And this
is after months of failed talks going on
between the Europeans and Iran. Um the
Iranian response came very quickly
yesterday. The foreign minister saying
that the action is unjustified, lacks
any legal basis. Not a lot from
President Trump which is
uncharacteristic of him. Though we did
get a statement from the Secretary of
State Marco Rubio uh saying that United
States does still remain available for
the diplomatic track. And remember,
those talks have also been stalled since
the war over the summer with President
Trump claiming that he's completely
obliterated Iran's nuclear capabilities.
It's unclear whether that is actually
the case because IEA inspectors still do
not have access to the sites that were
bombed. Ultimately though, President
Trump still is pursuing a maximalist
approach, zero enrichment. That seems
like it's unlikely to fly with the
Iranians. So there's still a lot of
daylight between the two sides, but it
does seem as though we are on track once
again for further sanctions to be
applied on Iran in as soon as 30 days
time.